Global Breaking News - Monday, December 23, 2024

Dawn of a New China?

The Chinese Communist Party unveiled last week a new leadership slate headed by Xi Jinping who will face the task of guiding China to a more sustainable model of growth. In his first speech as general secretary of the party, he offered only a few hints of a shift in direction, though he did denounce the “prevalence of corruption and said officials needed to guard against its spread." What are the core issues confronting Xi’s new leadership, and what can we expect to see?
* unveil = (새로운 계획, 상품 등을) 발표하다/ slate = (새로운) 시작, 상태/ denounce = 맹렬히 비난하다/ prevalence = 널리 퍼짐, 유행, 보급/ confront = 직면하다, 마주치다, 부딪치다/ predecessor = 전임자, 이전 것(모델)

 Xi Jinping의 새로운 지도력이 직면하는 핵심 사안은 무엇이며, 우리가 기대할 수 있는 것들은?

1. Corruption Is a Serious Problem
The power of state-run enterprises needs to be curbed. A more open and critical news media would help to expose abuses.

2. Political Reform Is Needed First
Xi Jinping needs to curb the power of the state, control corruption and give the people a voice in public policy.

3. Don’t Expect Big Changes
Anything remotely resembling political openness in China is likely to be subtle, gradual and conveyed by symbolisms.

4. The Social Pressures Are Real
Xi Jinping needs to address governance failures and channel mounting unrest toward gradual political evolution, rather than radical revolution.

5. When Predecessors Remain
While Xi Jinping's plain-spoken style is encouraging, it is unlikely he will initiate the much needed institutional reforms with his predecessors still around.

6. Economic Reform Must Happen
China’s new leaders will tackle economic challenges, partly out of necessity, and partly because Xi Jinping is in a strong position to consolidate power quickly.

Sample Essay

When Predecessors Remain

China has just completed its once in a decade leadership transition. As tumultuous as the events leading up to it have been, the actual leadership transition was an easy task. The most difficult challenge lies ahead for Xi Jinping. And it's much more complicated than shuffling and reshuffling the deck on the standing committee of the Politburo — the main challenge will be how to make the Chinese political system more accountable, more transparent and more responsive to the far-reaching changes reverberating throughout China's economy and society.

China faces two immediate monumental policy goals. First is dealing with an almost-certain slowdown in gross domestic product growth. The factors behind this slowdown are complex and some are structurally resistant to any short-term policy fixes. But one definite factor is the poor economic management of the prior leadership that has led to a strengthening of the inefficient state sector, crowding out private entrepreneurs and banks. The second policy goal will involve taking on the pervasive problem of corruption. As G.D.P. slows down, corruption will increase the size of income losses with far more dire political consequences.

Xi Jinping himself exhibits a more plain-spoken, pragmatic style than his predecessor. By Chinese political norms, this counts as huge progress. And while it is encouraging, it is unlikely that Xi will initiate the much needed institutional reforms. The actuarial tables of Chinese leaders have a far bigger impact on policies than problems on the ground. Deng Xiaoping was able to launch reforms only because Mao Zedong was not there to oversee him.

Unfortunately, Xi has no such advantage. Two of his predecessors are alive and — apparently — well. Incremental policy adjustments are conceivable but short of crisis-like scenarios on the ground the new leadership is likely to replicate the one that was there before. It is only natural that overlapping leaderships will have overlapping policies.