Are We Ready for Driverless Cars?
In announcing the company’s hopes to have fully autonomous cars on American roads by 2020, Google’s director of their self-driving car program said he did not think regulators would block the new technology. But even if they don’t, will driverless cars feel safe enough to deploy? Will we be ready to share the roads with them by 2020, or will the perceived risks be too high?
* autonomous = 자율(자주)적인/ self-driving = 스스로 운정하는/ deploy = 배치하다; 효율적으로 사용하다/ perceived = 인지(인식)된
2020년까지 운전자가 없는 자동차가 길에 배치되도 될까요? 인지된 위험이 너무 높은가요?
1. Automation Has Already Saved Lives
Technologies such as electronic stability control and anti-lock brakes have been around for years, and have helped make road travel much safer.
2. A New Regulatory Agency Is Needed First
This problem extends beyond just autonomous cars to drones, for example, or even "smart" radios.
3. The Cars Must Be Safe, Not Perfect
Waiting for autonomous vehicles to be perfect would mean the needless perpetuation of the risks posed by human drivers.
4. Ethical, and Efficiency, Tradeoffs
Considering that human drivers like to speed, will we be satisfied with self-driving technology that rigidly follows the letter of speed-limit laws?
Sample Essay
To Hit the Road, Driverless Cars Must Be Safe, Not Perfect
Once driverless cars are safer than the average human driver, we should let them hit the road. Indeed, waiting for autonomous vehicles to be perfect would be its own safety concern because it would mean the needless perpetuation of the risks posed by human drivers. In the United States alone, some 30,000 people are killed and more than 2 million injured in crashes every year, and the vast majority of them are caused by human error.
Certainly we still have a ways to go before driverless cars are the safer alternative. The technology must advance to the point where it can handle things we humans deal with all the time: adverse weather, difficult terrain, complex road rules, unusual objects in the road and, of course, the unpredictable nature of human drivers. We must also consider potential new safety concerns. For example, as pedestrians get used to the technology, will they step in front of oncoming traffic, confident autonomous vehicles will stop?
State regulators and automakers are still grappling with the safety certification process. In some states, like California, the D.M.V. has been asked to develop regulations for allowing driverless cars on the roads. But it is not clear how we will prove that driverless cars are safer. In the U.S., there are about 185 crashes per 100 million vehicle miles traveled: that is low enough that we can't demonstrate the relative safety of autonomous vehicles by simply driving them around and statistically comparing them to human drivers. Regulators and automakers will need to develop other methods — perhaps specific performance tests or simulations — to demonstrate safety.
Driverless cars may never be perfect but they won't make the kind of routine miscalculations and mistakes that human drivers make all the time. They won’t be drunk, tired or distracted. They also promise benefits to mobility, efficiency, congestion costs and land use.
I think that some automakers will get autonomous vehicles -- that can drive themselves at least some of the time -- on the road by 2020. Driverless cars, without the wheel, may be farther down the road, but should also be tested rigorously as the technology develops. Relying on human drivers any longer than we must is just too risky.
