Global Breaking News - Monday, December 23, 2024

More Than Just a ‘Category 1’

Many residents of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts didn’t get too worried when Hurricane Isaac was bearing down on them recently, perhaps in part because it was ranked as only Category 1. They might have been expecting a drizzle like New York City got a year ago from its Category 1 storm, Irene, rather than the drenching that other areas suffered from that storm. There can be a similar disconnect in how we think about earthquakes; the quakes in China on Friday, all less than magnitude 5.8, killed dozens of people and destroyed thousands of homes. How could we improve the rating systems for natural disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes?
* bear down on ~ = ~을 향해 돌진하다/ drizzle = 보슬비, 이슬비, 가랑비/ drenching = 흠뻑 젖음/ magnitude = 지진 규모; (엄청난) 규모(중요도)

 어떻게 허리케인, 회오리바람, 지진과 같은 자연 재해에 관련된 등급제를 향상 시킬 수 있나요?

1) We Need Ratings for Snowstorms and Heat Waves
Earthquakes, tornadoes and hurricanes have rating systems that the public understands. But heat waves are more deadly, and Americans need better warnings.
 
2) A Single Number Is Too Simplistic
A new system for classifying earthquakes, hurricanes and other disasters could include detailed information in a format that the public would understand.
 
3) When Magnitude Can Be Misleading
Some moderate earthquakes, with magnitudes of 5 to 6, cause significant damage because they strike close to vulnerable cities.
 
4) This Is When We Turn to the Professionals
In the end, there is no substitute for carefully worded warnings from trained professionals: not just a number, but a description based on experience and circumstances.

Sample Essay

This Is When We Turn to the Professionals

To the extent that rating systems are useful, they are so in two ways: First, they convey some measure of the risk for a forecast hazard, and second, they rate the actual effects of a hazard that has already occurred. For example, with respect to tornadoes, the Fujita Scale ranks them according to the severity of the damage they produce. This is useful in quantifying the hazard that tornadoes present, which is important in formulating insurance policies, building codes, etc. But the rating has somewhat less utility in forecasting tornadoes, simply because our current ability to forecast them at all is very limited. Trained spotters can usually tell the difference between an F0 and an F5 tornado, and this might aid warnings, but even here the violence of a tornado can change rapidly.

Einstein said that everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. With hurricanes, a single number is almost certainly too simple. Last year, Irene was just a tropical storm when it made landfall, but caused immense damage and injury mostly owing to flash floods caused by intense rain. The Saffir-Simpson categorization has evolved to pertain strictly to wind, and it might be adequate for that purpose, but it often fails to convey the true risk, which frequently arises from storm surge and heavy rainfall, neither of which affect the rating.

In the end, there is no substitute for carefully worded warnings from trained professionals. As Hurricane Isaac approached the Gulf Coast this year, National Weather Service forecasters repeatedly emphasized the risks of high storm surge and intense flooding, although Isaac was barely a Category 1 hurricane when it made landfall. Had people focused too narrowly on the fact that Isaac was just a Category 1 storm, surely many more lives would have been lost.